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The Dunning-Kruger Effect

19/7/2020

13 Comments

 
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Image by Dave Simonds


The "Dunning-Kruger Effect"

-- Fact or Science Fiction?

They're not exactly "
Dewey, Cheetham and Howe" (Fictional Attorneys at Law) but have certainly brought that team to mind.

They double-handedly inspired this CBC headline: 
How ignorance makes us cocky

It's actually a year-old CBC article, but it was updated on May 1/20, apparently to render it relevant to the ongoing Covid insanity.  It's about a couple of university research artists who've worked hard at making two names for themselves and finally succeeded. They're in the bigtime now!  Joined at the hip, they are definitely cocky about their "effect".

  • The Dunning-Kruger Effect is described as a cognitive quirk in which people with the least amount of knowledge or skill in a given field are as confident as those with the most expertise.
  • Their research has also found that the phenomenon results more from misinformation and misbelief rather than being uninformed.

Well, call me Dunning-Kruger-Stupid, but that sentence makes no sentence. I think there should be a "from" before the words "being uninformed".  But maybe I'm over-confident as was, obviously, my very strict English teacher.

My, my; so much babble and repetition of the names "Dunning-Kruger" - did you get that?

Look at Dunning's photo. Does he look a bit "cocky" to you?  Methinks he'd fail more than a few of his own tests.

It seems a bit dumb to call it "the Dunning-Kruger Effect" since the phrase suggests it's these two guys creating the effect.  Could it be they really are?  Through the power of suggestion, perhaps?

Look at the graph they created. I mean, if they could create a graph that looks like a skipping rope with a tall person at one end and a short person at the other end, then by golly, they must be brilliant.

Al Gore could take lessons from those guys.

They certainly get high marks for their ultra confidence, and they do love the sound of their own names conjoined. Dunning-Kruger, Dunning-Kruger, DUNNING-KRUGER.  Listen up, everybody; look at us! We're not just having an effect; we ARE an effect.

But what is the real point being sidled up to here?

​Ah, yes ... supporting "science"; specifically vaccines. Now why would they be doing that at this particular point in time?

Can't help wondering where they get their funding?  Neither can I.
​
  • "About a third of Americans, it's been shown, believe they know as much about vaccines and vaccination as experts and scientists. And it turns out that people who claim equal knowledge [to experts and scientists] tend to do the worst on actual tests of actual knowledge," Dunning said.

Given their all-too apparent prejudice in favour of vaccines, how can anyone be sure their test is scientifically valid?

Note the weasel words: "About"; "tend".  Sounds like guesswork to me.

By whom has it been shown that "About" a third of Americans "believe they know as much about vaccines and vaccination" as "experts" and "scientists" ... ?  Well, by the great Dunning-Kruger duo, of course, once they've had their "effect".

I bet those guys can tap-dance too.

Could it be that D-K are prime examples of their own theory?  I mean, doesn't it "take one to know one"?

You can't fool me, D-K.  I personally know little about vaccines, never having had one, but I do know that a lot of money has been paid out to Americans who formerly trusted science right up until their child was damaged by a vaccine.

That's pretty much all anyone needs to know to be rendered cautious.

Take Bill Gates, for example (please, God, take him).  He doesn't know everything that's in vaccines, and he's currently not hurting anybody except Black African kids. So that's okay, eh?

It's not surprising that the U.S. now wants to end vaccine injury compensation payments.  Are they anticipating Covid vaccine injuries? If so, and if the vaccine is made mandatory for all, that's way too much money for injury compensation.

Canada has never given a hoot about whether or not a person has been injured by a vaccine. 

But, like the Effect duo, the gummint (adverse effects following immunization) does turn out a lovely graph on the subject (Jan 1 - June 30 - 2019). *See the graph at the bottom of this page. Be sure to read what it says under "other events".

So there's that and the fact that too many "experts" have been found to be politically motivated. Universities are hotbeds of cut-throat politics.

Jordan Peterson:  It is nothing less than a dire day when the proud revelation of vices of deadly and multifarious seriousness serve to substitute for announcements of genuine and valuable achievement, but that is where we are at—make no mistake about it.

"Publish or perish" makes idiots of even the most well-meaning. But I smell a couple of inveterate political lab rats of the show-biz genre.

If D-K are not heavily invested in the Corona bonanza, i.e., vaccine stocks, they maybe should think seriously about that instead of about what others think of them and their amazing "everybody else but us and the vaccine makers is stupid" act.

They should at least test Bill Gates with their theory. If he's not way too full of himself, considering the damage he's contemplating, then nobody is, and the D-K team (ooh, sounds like "decay team") needs to find another attention-getting hobby.

I always like to take a look at the comments on CBC tripe because they often make me smile, and one needs a reason to smile in this age of "expert" demoralization.

John Fairview:
 Interesting article, reminds me of a quote
“Research is what I’m doing when I don’t know what I’m doing.” Wernher von Braun

Also reminds me of something my father used to say:
"I've only been wrong once in my life; it was one time when I thought I was wrong."

Image: from Gov't of Canada website: stats on vaccine injury.

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13 Comments
M.R.
19/7/2020 04:13:55 pm

I knew I knew too little about the disease process and the more I read the more I felt I needed to read more. I still have only a modicum of confidence I understand the subject. Both dumbed-down non-experts and dubious experts should humbly join me at the bottom of that skipping rope graph when reality, un-biased research and experience challenge either their ignorance or intransigence but sadly that's just not how the world works these days. The success of the mind-bending agenda is far and deep.

"They should at least test Bill Gates with their theory."

First they'd have to test to see if he really is an expert in the field or merely an expert in his own mind. However D-K objectivity is more than a little suspect.

I'd like Dr. Kaufman to test Bill Gates on disease theories (Pasteur vs. Bechamp, germ vs. terrain) and on vaccine efficacy and safety. Pretty sure the good professor would flunk that pretentious little potentate of vaccine promotion.

https://www.bitchute.com/video/tOUTlEJ3p3oO/

Reply
yayacanada
19/7/2020 07:06:34 pm

Hi M.R., just finished watching that long conversation. I eventually fell asleep, but not for long. Then they got talking about how to survive the craziness, and that kept me very alert. Kaufman talked about Neil Kramer, so I've downloaded some of his stuff as well, though I'm a bit leery of any kind of guru. Have to find a way to get through this madness without feeling angry 1/3 of the time, sad another 1/3 and noticing the humour with what's left.

Found a place to buy food on my terms as long as I go early in the morning. So that's solved. But I'm continually shocked at how people are being managed/damaged "for their own safety" -- and believng what to me seem to be quite transparent lies.

Anyway, thanks for pointing me in an interesting, and different direction. The older I get the more I realize that there are all kinds of life forms within and around us that we can't see but which have a direct influence on our quality of life. Sometimes I get resentful that we don't have the power to see Life itself and have to muddle through our own existence as if blind and deaf, not having a clue what the very next second holds for us.

If nothing else, Covid madness has brought me back to a more philosophical state. We'll see where it leads.

It's alway good to hear from you!

Reply
M.R.
19/7/2020 10:30:30 pm

I spent most of the afternoon watching that video in short spurts while doing other things. Dr. Barre Lando was too technical at times for me but I did learn one new word -- mucor. Afraid I don't have an inclination to guru-think. When conversation gets into transcendental territory I just can't follow it. Besides I doubt I could ever blank out my mind since it has been filled with continuous tinnitus interference my entire life -- that's the sound of silence for me.

Very pleased you've found an acceptable food source. See Penny's "OPP Kill …" piece where I commented on our local farmers market.

This "first wave" appears to be more about controlling the population and destroying the economy than an exceptional health threat. However I am very worried about the "second wave" they are pushing because the insane covid measures taken in the past 5 months have surely weakened the immune systems of people of all ages. And then there's the possibility of food shortages to add insult to all the other injuries. Cripes Canadian winters can be bad enough on their own. Smirky Bill & Melinda must be so delighted with how the agenda is rolling out.

yayacanada
19/7/2020 11:05:11 pm

Just came back from reading your comment at Penny's about the farmers' market. It's indoors, I take it. I'm thinking that Kingston's market square one (outdoors) might be okay for me to try out tomorrow.

I hear you about Guru stuff. Been there; tried that; seems like little more than affectation. Besides, anyone can be one:

https://me.me/i/nowy-you-can-train-for-the-most-recession-proof-job-14574509

I tried but couldn't watch Neil Kramer; I expect my gurus to have inner quiet, and his body language was too restless. So that's that. We're on our own, kid, "mucor" and all. Maybe that's because we're good at it despite the intermittent urge to smack some sense into some people ;-)

Reply
M.R.
20/7/2020 12:17:15 am

Our summer market is outdoors. Vendors set up awnings for some rain protection is all. I'll let you know how it goes. It was bloody inconsiderate to shut it down without warning. I don't know how many vendors will come back given they don't make much money anyway and they've got a list of rules to follow too -- might be too much hassle for them. If the vegetable stand and the Hutterites aren't there we'll not be either.

I'm watching the latest Max Igan video. Those temperature guns are inaccurate/useless but I guess they want people to get accustomed to having a gun pointed at their heads.

Reply
yayacanada
20/7/2020 08:26:08 am

Yeah, I heard about those guns. I've been wondering if that's what my dentist is using because he's taking temps too. I told him I won't be back until I don't have to wear a mask in the waiting room. He knows I'm stubborn. ;-)

I'm off to watch Max now.

yaya
20/7/2020 11:09:52 am

Just came back from a walk overtown. No market to be seen. Lots of masks, though.

I realize I have officially joined the ranks of the aged: totally out of breath, tightness across the chest (though that could be my bra). The guys on the benches at my building welcomed me into the club. I might sit with them from now on; they seem to be having more fun than anybody else.

Reply
James
20/7/2020 08:04:21 pm

Hi Yaya
Too bad about the market. Good find on the article though.
I like the "research artist" name you gave them. I am sure they used a lot of artistry in their research.

Reply
yaya
20/7/2020 10:03:50 pm

Hi James: Yeah, a lot of people think science is also an art. That's the trouble with science -- and with art.

Reply
James
21/7/2020 10:46:28 am

Speaking of psychology. Here is an interesting article I found on how the British Government is using behavior modification techniques in the time of Covid. I find it deeply disturbing but not at all surprising. I suspect our health departments have cut and paste this report into their response mechanisms.

https://viableopposition.blogspot.com/2020/07/how-governments-manipulate-our.html

Reply
yaya
21/7/2020 11:21:18 am

<... this document from the British government's Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies shows us that science is, in fact, being used during the pandemic, it's just that it's behavioural science aimed at changing our behaviours and making us more amenable to societal changes that we may not otherwise have accepted. >

Ah, the famous Flotsam- Jetsam Technique, no doubt inspired by the Dunning-Kruger Effect. Good find, James!

Reply
M.R.
23/7/2020 06:24:48 pm

Hi Yaya!
This week's market went well (from our POV) -- lots of people, very few masks. I didn't remember all the rules but a few I did remember were followed let's say a tad less than perfectly. There were a couple of patrol/control volunteers visible so I hope they forget/forgive some infractions because I'd hate there to be another surprise shut down. Just in case, we bought more than we would if next week was an absolute certainty. Anyway, we were very pleased to see all the vendors return and again -- lots of people, very few masks.

Can't wait to start shelling the fresh peas and enjoying my favourite summer treat.

Reply
yayacanada
23/7/2020 08:12:26 pm

Yeah, it's almost like at the very beginning of the panic when people started stockpiling. I'm doing the same thing now that I can shop again, buying more than I really need. Dollarama will let me shop there at 9 am, so I can get some things I could't find at Shopper's. I'm not getting much fresh stuff, but frozen is okay with me for the time being. Got some fresh baby carrotts at Shoppers, though, so that's a treat, and bananas. I can survive quite well until the madness subsides.

Yeah, there are a lot of tiny faux pas one can make in this new era of perfect social behaviour. On the streets I'm finding that the masked people don't make eye contact while the unmasked are quite friendly and smiley.

James (see above) provided a link to a blatant source on how to how to reduce opposition to the Covid rules. It's literally mind bending.

Reply



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